The crying mountains: How climate change is turning Jammu Kashmir and Ladakh’s glaciers into ticking time bombs

High in the Himalayas, where ancient ice has stood for millennia, a silent transformation is underway. Glaciers that once held the mountains together are melting at an alarming rate, giving birth to vast lakes of meltwater held back by nothing more than loose rubble and frozen debris. Scientists call them glacial lakes. Disaster managers call them ticking time bombs.

When these lakes burst—and they are bursting with increasing frequency—they unleash millions of litres of water in minutes, sweeping away everything in their path. This is the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, or GLOF—a phenomenon that the Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh can no longer afford to ignore.

The Anatomy of a Disaster

A GLOF begins quietly, almost imperceptibly. As global temperatures rise, glaciers retreat, leaving behind depressions that fill with meltwater. These lakes grow year after year, dammed by moraine—loose rock, ice and sediment that is structurally weak and inherently unstable.

“It’s not very solidified rock, but loosely set sediments,” explains Prof Ghulam Jeelani, Head of Earth Sciences at the University of Kashmir. “In case of extreme rainfall, the lake level will increase and the water may breach it. Another factor is permafrost degradation. When permafrost melts, it leads to collapse or localised landslides. If those landslides happen in the lake area, they will enter the lake and breach the dam.”

The triggers are varied but increasingly common: cloudbursts, avalanches, earthquakes, or simply the weight of the water itself. Once the dam breaks, the flood is catastrophic. Hydrodynamic modelling of potential GLOF events in the western Himalayas has estimated peak flows ranging from 17,814 to 22,700 cubic metres per second—enough to inundate areas of nearly five square kilometres and devastate downstream settlements.

Across the Himalaya-Karakoram region, more than 388 GLOF events have been documented, primarily from moraine- and ice-dammed lakes. The frequency is rising in direct correlation with global temperatures. What was once a rare mountain hazard is becoming a regular feature of Himalayan life.

A Region on the Edge

Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh sit at the epicentre of this crisis. Together, they host an estimated 15,000 to 18,000 glaciers. The region’s cryosphere—its snow, ice and permafrost—is warming faster than the global average. The consequences are stark: glacial lakes have expanded dramatically in both number and size, accompanied by a 40 per cent rise in meltwater discharge.

The numbers are sobering. A government monitoring committee has identified 197 glacial lakes in Jammu & Kashmir and the Upper Indus region as high-risk. In Ladakh alone, ISRO has generated an inventory of 3,219 glacial lakes larger than 0.25 hectares. Of these, high-risk lakes including Katkar and Suru have already undergone GLOF risk modelling.

Some districts are more vulnerable than others. Kishtwar has emerged as the most threatened, hosting the highest concentration of glacial lakes in Jammu & Kashmir. Four lakes here—Mundiksar, Hangu, Patla Pani, and one unnamed—are classified as unsafe. Other high-risk districts include Rajouri, Ganderbal, and Anantnag.

The Kashmir Valley: A Corridor Under Threat

Above the scenic town of Sonamarg—a strategic corridor linking Kashmir to Ladakh and a major tourist destination—a cluster of glacial lakes sits on the edge of growing danger. The Jammu & Kashmir government has confirmed that five of these lakes are at high risk of GLOF.

The implications are profound. Scientific assessments estimate that over 2,700 buildings, 15 bridges and key road stretches would fall within vulnerable zones in the event of a major outburst. The Sindh valley, which drains areas around Sonamarg, forms part of the Srinagar–Leh axis—a critical road link and supply route to forward areas along the borders with China and Pakistan.

“What makes Kashmir particularly vulnerable is its geography,” a disaster management expert told this newspaper. “Rivers originating from high-altitude lakes descend rapidly into densely populated valleys, unlike the sparsely inhabited regions of Ladakh”.

A major GLOF in Kashmir would not only devastate civilian settlements and agricultural land but could also disrupt military logistics along a corridor that has remained central during past conflicts, including the Kargil War and the Galwan Valley clash.

Ladakh: The Third Pole Under Pressure

Ladakh, part of the trans-Himalayan “Third Pole,” faces its own distinct challenges. The region’s remote terrain often delays response efforts, making preparedness and early warning absolutely critical.

The scale of the threat is immense. Beyond the 3,219 glacial lakes already inventoried, ISRO has mapped more than 2,000 glaciers in Ladakh using satellite data from 2020-23. Changes in the extent of more than 1,000 glaciers have been tracked over two decades. The Drang Drung glacial lake, one of Ladakh’s most studied water bodies, has been the subject of advanced bathymetric modelling, with simulations estimating potential peak discharges of 78 cubic metres per second from overtopping alone.

Administrative Secretary Bhanu Prabha, speaking at a recent disaster management seminar in Leh, emphasised the fragile ecological balance of Ladakh and the “increasing risks of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, cloudbursts, and water-related hazards”. The seminar featured live demonstrations of ultrasonic water level monitoring systems and discussions on converting glacial lake risks into sustainable water storage—innovative thinking for a region where water scarcity and flood risk coexist.

The Human Cost

Behind the statistics are real communities living in the shadow of catastrophe. The 2024-25 season brought one of the harshest August months on record for Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh, with devastating cloudbursts and landslides claiming over 122 lives. While not all were GLOF events, the Chasoti cloudburst in Kishtwar and the Uttarkashi cloudburst are believed to have involved potential GLOF contributions.

The Kedarnath disaster of 2013, the Gya village incident of 2014, and the South Lhonak GLOF of 2023 stand as grim reminders of what is at stake. Each event underscores the urgent need for proactive risk reduction. More recently, in July 2025, a GLOF on the Purepu Glacier along the China-Nepal border released an estimated 1.629 × 10⁷ cubic metres of water, with a peak discharge of 1,506 cubic metres per second. The flood traversed 97 kilometres downstream.

The Himalayas have recorded more GLOFs than any other mountain range, averaging 1.3 incidents annually over the past four decades. With climate change accelerating glacier retreat, that average is almost certain to rise.

What Is Being Done

The response is gradually taking shape. The Jammu & Kashmir government’s GLOF Management Plan for 2024-25 outlines several mitigation strategies:

• Continuous monitoring of high-risk lakes using satellite imagery and ground expeditions.
• Early warning systems to alert downstream communities.
• Engineering interventions, including reinforcement of unstable moraine dams and construction of drainage channels.

The National Disaster Management Authority has formulated detailed guidelines for GLOF management, recommending electronic early warning systems for alerting downstream areas. The Western Himalayan Regional Centre of the National Institute of Hydrology, based in Jammu, has made cryosphere hazards and GLOF assessment a central thrust area of its research.

ISRO has emerged as a critical player in the region’s defence against GLOFs. Through projects like the Cryosphere Science and Applications Programme (CAP), Ladakh Specific Modelling and Space Applications (LAMA), and the Satellite Integrated Landslide Assessment and Alert System (SILAAS), the space agency is building a comprehensive monitoring infrastructure. Space-based information on floods and GLOF events is now routinely provided to Ladakh during disaster response.

In Gurez, along the Kishanganga River in Bandipora, a GLOF warning system has already been commissioned for the local hydropower station. In Leh, a one-day seminar in March 2026 brought together experts from IIT Roorkee, the India Meteorological Department, and the National Disaster Response Force to strengthen disaster preparedness.

The Road Ahead

Despite these efforts, significant gaps remain. One major challenge is the lack of detailed ground data. While satellite monitoring has improved the tracking of glacial lakes, precise measurements of lake depth and volume remain limited. A study published in January 2026 warned that the lack of sufficient research is making it harder for nearly one million people living within 10 kilometres of glacial lakes to prepare for sudden floods.

Experts also caution that the absence of past major GLOF events in Kashmir should not be seen as reassurance, especially as glacier retreat has accelerated over the past two decades. The lakes are expanding and becoming more unstable due to rising temperatures. As glaciologist Dr Anil V Kulkarni has noted, warming trends are accelerating glacier retreat across the region, contributing to the rapid growth of glacial lakes.

“What makes Kashmir particularly vulnerable is its geography,” the expert reiterated, pointing to the rapid descent of rivers from high-altitude lakes into densely populated valleys. “This increases the likelihood of damage to settlements, infrastructure and agricultural land.”

A Call to Action

The message from scientists, disaster managers and administrators is clear: the time for complacency is over. As the images accompanying this article from conservationist Dr Rakesh Verma make plain, the mountains are crying—and the valleys below are in danger of drowning.

The path forward demands a multi-pronged approach: regular monitoring of glacial lakes using satellite and drone technology; installation of sensors and early warning systems for timely alerts; risk mapping to identify vulnerable lakes and downstream settlements; community awareness and regular disaster drills; ecosystem restoration to reduce downstream impact; and sustainable infrastructure planning that keeps disaster risks in mind.

Above all, it demands a recognition that the crisis in the Himalayas is not a local problem but a global one. The glaciers of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh are melting because the planet is warming. Reducing carbon emissions, protecting forests and ecosystems, and building climate-resilient communities are not optional—they are existential imperatives.

“Healthy Himalaya… Secure Tomorrow,” as Dr Verma’s campaign reminds us. The mountains give us water, life and beauty. It is time we respected them, protected them, and prepared for their fury.

BOX: GLOF AT A GLANCE

• What is GLOF? A sudden release of water from a glacial lake dammed by unstable moraine, ice or rock.
• Causes: Rapid glacier melt, heavy rainfall, ice avalanches, earthquakes, permafrost degradation.
• Impact: Loss of lives, destruction of infrastructure, economic losses, environmental damage, long-term landscape alteration.
• J&K & Ladakh: 197 high-risk lakes in J&K and Upper Indus; 3,219 glacial lakes in Ladakh.
• Most vulnerable: Kishtwar district (J&K); Katkar and Suru lakes (Ladakh).