The Late Bloomer Coin: Jammu & Kashmir

• The article analyses Jammu & Kashmir’s recent economic trajectory through a policy and investment lens, arguing that the region represents a “late bloomer” case where institutional consolidation is converging with long-term investment potential.

Not every area is intended for rapid acceleration. Before growth becomes sustainable, some mature gradually, aligning institutions, infrastructure, and incentives. According to development economics, these areas frequently don't show their full potential until after periods of policy stabilization and consolidation.

More and more, Jammu & Kashmir fits the description of a "late bloomer." Its current economic trajectory points to a slow convergence of investment readiness and policy maturity rather than a sharp uptick or brief recovery. Two interconnected dimensions—two sides of the same coin—can be used to understand this evolution.

According to recent forecasts, Jammu and Kashmir is about to enter a macroeconomic stabilization phase. In 2024–2025, the region is anticipated to see nominal GSDP growth of more than 11% and real growth of about 7%. Although these numbers are noteworthy, the structural circumstances that underpin them are more important than the headline figures.

One obvious example is tourism. Visitor numbers have increased in tandem with ongoing public spending on public amenities, urban infrastructure, and connectivity. Tourism is becoming more and more influenced by planned capacity-building—roads, airports, and urban services—that allows for continuity and scale rather than just seasonal demand.
Horticulture, which has long been the foundation of the local economy, is showing a similar shift. With the help of supply-chain integration, organic methods, and geographical indication certification, the industry is progressively moving away from volume-centric production and toward value-oriented growth. This change has significant effects on employment resilience, export competitiveness, and farmer incomes.

The results of industrial policy also suggest enhancing institutional capability. Nearly 2,000 industrial units have been operational since 2019, indicating improved administrative coordination and policy continuity. The general trend points to maturing governance rather than episodic intervention, despite ongoing implementation challenges.
The significant hydropower potential of Jammu & Kashmir has been firmly recognized in policy planning in the energy sector. Even though only a small portion of this potential has been realized thus far, acknowledging it indicates alignment with more general national clean-energy goals.

If policy maturity serves as the cornerstone, investment optionality stands for asymmetry, or the existence of a structurally real but unrealized opportunity. Over 2.36 crore tourists visited the area in 2024, maintaining demand in the areas of hospitality, transportation, retail, and services. Investment interest has increased as well; proposals totaling about ₹1.63 lakh crore are currently being considered. As these projects come to fruition, estimates indicate that approximately 5.9 lakh jobs could be created, supporting medium-term consumption and urban growth dynamics.

The power industry is the most notable example of latent upside. The estimated potential of Jammu & Kashmir is nearly 18,000 MW, compared to an installed hydropower capacity of roughly 3,600 MW. This gap offers the region a long-term chance to support both the clean energy transition and national energy security, rather than just a shortfall in infrastructure.

Risk-taking and speed are frequently rewarded in early-stage regions. Patience, alignment, and institutional depth are rewarded by late bloomers. It seems that Jammu & Kashmir is moving toward the latter group. This does not mean that there are no difficulties, but it does imply that consistency and good governance are more likely to produce lasting value than quick growth.

In terms of global development, this is a tale of slow build-up rather than leapfrogging. Regions that develop under the radar tend to advance more steadily than regions that leap to scale. The “late bloomer coin” therefore is not a metaphor of delay, but of timing. It symbolizes a region ready to translate an opportunity to a lasting result, preferring an “over the horizon thinking” type of decision to the “peaks today and valleys tomorrow” kind.