Erratic rainfall patterns can mean both an increase and decrease of precipitation amounts. Decreased rainfall and drought can cause low yields and crop failure, depletion of surface and groundwater irrigation supplies, depletion of domestic water supplies, and an increase in wildfire potential. With the combination of irregular extreme heat spikes, varied season length, and erratic rainfall patterns in J&K, farmers who have historically relied on predictable planting calendars and irrigation schedules can find themselves in unfamiliar new conditions that are hard to predict and plan for.
This year 2019 extreme weather wreaking havoc in Jammu and Kashmir. Where in June Kashmir witness snowfall and several severe hailstorms, speedy winds and lightening. The erratic rainfall related is to changing climate will pose a major threat to food security and economic growth of Jammu and Kashmir.
The unusually heavy hailstorm that lashed Kashmir, creating snowfall-like conditions in 2019 isn’t the freak weather that many think it to be but may be due to a climate change pattern. And we may have to face more such extreme weather in the future. There is increasing concern that local severe storm occurrence may be changing as a result of climate change. It was one of the most intense hailstorms to hit the plains, damaging property, agricultural and horticultural produce worth of crores.
In this year, this is the fourth severe hail storm that lashed the Kashmir Pulwama district damaging horticultural produce especially apple cultivation. In this year the district Budgam faces the severe hailstorm where it creates havoc among farmers and general people. Another severe hailstorm strikes the district Baramulla, Ganderbal Districts this year.
The Heavy rain and hailstorm wreaked havoc on apple orchards and agricultural produce in Kashmir, especially in Baramulla District which makes up 25 per cent of the state’s apple industry. Apple trees and vegetables were damaged by hailstorm and rain in Baramulla, Sopore, Wagoora, Rafiabad and Zaingeer on Thursday evening 2109. The Kashmir valley produces nearly 20 lakh metric tonnes of apple every year from 1,46,016 hectares.
The Rs 8,000-crore apple industry, which is Kashmir’s biggest economy, is in tatters due to the changing climatic conditions. Kashmir’s horticulture industry, which provide livelihood to about 30% of our population, the freak weather conditions are likely to bring loses. All these developments are serious concerns and are an outcome of climate change.
On an average, five to six western disturbances hit the Himalayas every month from December to February. However, this year, their impact was seen much more in the plains especially in Jammu and Kashmir. The severe winter in Kashmir 2109, the high temp. in Jammu, the snowfall in June in Ladakh and Kashmir, Hailstorms, lightening and Heavy rains and winds are the examples. In this year 2019, we face Severe winter, snowfall, heavy rains, thunderstorms, lightening, speedy winds and extreme hailstorms in Jammu and Kashmir. These erratic precipitation conditions are due to changing climate.
An International organization ‘Action Aid’ in its climate change report on Kashmir has stated that Kashmir region has shown a rise of 1.42 degree Celsius and there is an average rise of 0.05 degree Celsius per year. The estimated temperature is projected to increase from 0.9 +/- 0.6 degree to 2.6 +/- 0.7 degree in next fifteen years. As a result of rising temperature in Kashmir, over the last 50 years hundreds of natural springs and streams have dried up. Glaciers, the main source of water, have shrunk at an alarming rate.
The average temperature of Jammu and Kashmir has increased by 1.2 degree Celsius over the last century, higher than the global average of 0.8 to 0.9 degree Celsius. In the last 100 years, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed an increase of 1.2-degree Celsius in the temperature. For the same period, the average rise in temperature on earth has been 0.8 degree Celsius.
Effects of climate change are already being felt on the ground. Erratic snowfall and rainfall pattern, and unusually warm winters are some of the characteristics of the climate change in Jammu and Kashmir. For the last 10 years, the Kashmir valley has witnessed erratic snowfall during the Chila-e-Kalan (the 40-day harshest period of winter starting from December 21 to January 31). If you talk to parents or grandparents, they will tell you that they used to witness a metre of snow and more during winters. But there is continuous depletion of snowfall. For instance, we had sufficient snow in 2006, 2011 and 2017, but very scant or almost none in the years between. But this year the intense winter cold waves, Heavy rains, speedy winds, lightening and severe hailstorms and in June 2019 the unusual snowfall in Kashmir and Ladakh is surprising to all of us.
Climate change has greatly affected the agriculture, horticulture, agro forestry, tourism, biodiversity, water resources, natural habitats, wildlife and livelihood of the people. As per INCCA report by 2030, the number of rainy days in the Himalayan region may increase by 5-10 days on an average, with an increase by more than 15 days in the eastern part of the Jammu and Kashmir. The intensity of rain fall is likely to increase by 1-2 mm/day. It may have an impact some of the horticultural crops. The rate of recession of glaciers is reportedly varying which is being attributed to global warming, winter precipitation and anthropogenic elements. Temperature, rainfall and cold wave may inversely impact the agricultural and horticultural sectors.
The extreme weather in the valley this winter, temperature in Jammu crossed 40 degrees, and the heavy rains, hailstorm and snowfall in June 2019 is a warning sign of climate change and such extreme events become more severe in the coming decades.
Climate change and warming is a global trend, its impact on Kashmir is significant. Main resources in Jammu and Kashmir are snow, water and glacier. We are seeing from the last few decades that the glaciers are melting faster, waterbodies are lasting and wildlife is also decreasing at an alarming rate.
It has been seen that from 1880 to 2012, average global temperature increased by 0.85°C. In Jammu and Kashmir deficit in food production is increasing. Most of the cultivated area of the state is rain fed and with the reduction in rainfall, the rain-fed agriculture will be greatly affected. Horticultural crops like apple and walnut are also showing decline because of reduction in the timely rainfall. Climate change has also impact on human health because of water quality, water-borne diseases, thermal stress, food availability, vectors and air quality, etc. It is expected that malaria, dengue, infectious diseases etc. will also increase.
Agriculture is greatly influenced by the climate change. Paddy, wheat and mustard productions may be reduced by 6%, 4% and 4%, respectively by the climate change. The deficit in food grains and vegetables production in Jammu and Kashmir region has put food security of the state at a great risk.
There is need to create awareness on weather forecasting among farmers. There is need to use the best practices for water conservation like drip irrigation, sprinkle irrigation etc. There is also the need to adopt the organic farming and introduction of non-polluting traditional methods for farming. Green manure, bio-manure, vermi-compost, compost, neem tree products, cow urine etc. should be promoted so that safe and healthy food can be produced for the people. There is need to develop crop varieties with more drought tolerance.
Climate change over all is promising a frightening future with no back door to escape or exit for us. It is a high time we pull up our socks and come ahead together to combat the consequences of climate change, not just at the global level but from very basic units such as the Community and the locality.