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Written by: Bilal Bashir Bhat

Category: ENVIRONMENT

Published: 26 June 2019

Deadly mix of heavy rain and landslides every year is leaving a trail of destruction with weather scientists attributing it to global climate change affecting the entire Himalayan region, making cloudbursts localised. For the last two years, there has been greater frequency of deadly interaction of moist warm monsoon winds and cool dry western winds called western disturbance creating a low-pressure area over the state, resulting in extremely heavy rain. The state has witnessed several such incidents this year. Heavy rain, a rare phenomenon in Jammu and Kashmir, is becoming a reality now.

A cloudburst is an extreme amount of precipitation in a short period of time sometimes accompanied by hail and thunder, which is capable of creating flood conditions. A cloudburst can suddenly dump large amounts of water e.g. 25 mm of precipitation corresponds to 25,000 metric tons/km2 (1 inch corresponds to 72,300 short tons over one square mile). However, cloudbursts are infrequent as they occur only via orographic lift or occasionally when a warm air parcel mixes with cooler air, resulting in sudden condensation. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) labels rainfall over 100 mm per hour as cloudburst. Usually small areas – anywhere between 20-80 square kilometres are affected.

Warm, sunny mornings have been followed by sudden gathering of clouds followed by high thunderstorm/ cloudburst activity in Jammu and Kashmir. Cloud Burst in Jammu and Kashmir, is a common phenomenon. However, in recent years the frequency of this event has been increased tremendously.

The fragile Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir faced around a dozen of these extreme weather events this year killed many persons and damaging property worth of crores. The timing and frequency of such events has increased and also changed. Earlier, cloudbursts were common during monsoon or post-monsoon period. Cloud bursts are happening sooner every year. But in this year, we may face such extreme events from April to June 2019. As the number of cloudbursts events in Jammu and Kashmir has increased most of these events are reported once their affect in terms of loss to life and property is experienced in the downstream habitats. In addition, they are mostly associated with flash floods.

Cloudbursts do happen in plains as well, but there is a greater probability of them occurring in mountainous zones; it has to do with the terrain. Cloudbursts happen when saturated clouds are unable to produce rain because of the upward movement of very warm current of air. Raindrops, instead of dropping down, are carried upwards by the air current. New drops are formed and existing raindrops gain in size. After a point, the raindrops become too heavy for the cloud to hold on to, and they drop down together in a quick flash. Hilly terrains aid in heated air currents rising vertically upwards, thereby, increasing the probability of a cloudburst situation.

   Flash floods triggered by cloudburst hit Thathri town resulting in a massive increase in the level of the 'nullah', in which Six people died and 11 people have been injured and several houses and shops have been damaged. A school building has also been damaged in this incident.

On July 2019 Two cloudbursts in Ganderbal and Shehnag is the example of extreme weather phenomenon in the fragile Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir. A deadly mix of heavy rain and landslides every year is leaving a trail of destruction with weather scientists attributing it to global climate change affecting the entire Himalayan region, making cloudbursts localised.

Two brothers were killed on Monday (2019) due to a cloudburst in Anantnag district of Jammu and Kashmir. The deceased were identified as Arif Ahmad Lone and Sameer Ahmad Lone. The cloudburst washed away four persons along with their cattle. In these two brothers died while the other two were rescued by locals. The deceased brother duo was identified as Sameer Ahmad and Aarif Ahmed, sons of Muhammad Ibrahim Lone of Pooru Kokernag.

On Tuesday, 10 families of 'Bakarwals' (goatherds) on move to higher reaches were trapped due to cloudburst. In this event over 110 sheep and goats perished and public infrastructure suffered heavy damage in a cloudburst in Jammu and Kashmir's in Thanamandi area of Rajouri.

On June 13, 2019 Over 100 sheep were killed followed by heavy rains and lightning and fresh snowfall in Sarbal and Baltal areas of central Kashmirs Ganderbal on Tuesday last night.

Due to cloudbursts this year (2019) government buildings, including some schools and health centres, besides private property including shops and residential houses, were damaged in Poonch and Ramban districts.

The geography of a place makes it vulnerable to cloudbursts—which are a convective phenomenon producing sudden high-intensity rainfall over a small area. Due to its topography, geology, propensity for tectonic activity and ecological fragility, the Himalayan region becomes prone to rapidly changing weather at micro-levels.

One of the important causes of frequent cloud burst is faster evaporation rate from high altitude glacial lakes. The mean temperature of the Earth has been increased 0.75° C during last century due to global warming, resulting faster destruction of mountain or valley glacier. This phenomenon is already witnessed in Himalaya where glacier and glacial lakes are changing alarmingly. Glacier retreating rate in Himalaya is 10 to 60 m per year.

Another reason for this increase is rising temperatures due to climate change. Rainfall depends on temperature which impacts wind pattern and cloud formation. With increasing temperatures, such events are on the rise.

The average temperature of Jammu and Kashmir has increased by 1.2 degree Celsius over the last century, higher than the global average of 0.8 to 0.9 degree Celsius. In the last 100 years, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed an increase of 1.2-degree Celsius in the temperature. For the same period, the average rise in temperature on earth has been 0.8 degree Celsius.

The decadal temperature rise in the Himalayan region is higher than the global rate of rising temperatures. “Several climate change studies over the Himalayas reported a consistent warming in the present climate with rate of warming much higher than the global average of 0.4 degree Celsius. 

In 2019 the anomalies in temperature, the temp. was very high in Jammu, the Kashmir valley inundated and the Ladakh division freezes, itself is an evident sign of changing climate. It was an extreme nature of the western disturbance.

Due to this increasing temperature, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other mountain range. Glacial lakes formed by melting glaciers are constrained by ice dams. Since the Indian summer monsoon coincides with the melting of glaciers, ice dams are weakened by the additional stress of the monsoons and are prone to bursting. A flash flood in Kargil in May 2016 and the devastating flood in J&k 2014 was attributed to this.

There has been a steep increase in cloudbursts-like events and rainfall in Jammu and Kashmir this year. Days with cloudburst-like events in the Himalayas saw a steep increase from an average of five days per year between 2001 and 2005 to over 15 days per year between 2006 and 2013. In recent years, anthropogenic factors such as population, deforestation, land-use change and emissions due to urbanisation have been implicated in extreme weather events in the Himalayas.

While global temperature is recorded to have increased by about 0.8°C in recent decades, the increase has been greater in regions at higher altitudes. This is especially ominous considering that mountains are not only affected by climatic patterns but also contribute to the changing climate owing to the enormous deposits of water they hold in the form of glaciers, ice and snow. Nowhere is this situation truer than in the Himalayan-Tibetan massif, the world’s highest region, where warming of 0.15-0.6°C per decade has been observed in the past three decades. The warming, according to some scientists, has wreaked havoc on the monsoonal patterns in the Himalayas.

Cities are particularly vulnerable to cloudbursts - short-duration, intense rainfall events – which are often inadequately addressed through conventional stormwater and flood management policy. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of cloudbursts in many cities. As minor cloudburst events become more frequent and extreme events more severe, cities will need to rapidly transform their stormwater drainage and interdependent systems, and the knowledge systems that guide their infrastructure decisions and policy.

Cloudbursts are difficult to forecast but not impossible; the difficulty arises out of the fact that they take place over a very small area. Forecasts for a very small area are difficult to predict. But through the use of doppler radars, it is possible to forecast the possibility of cloudbursts about six hours in advance, sometimes even 12-14 hours in advance. Unfortunately, there are only two to three doppler radars installed in Himalayan state Jammu and Kashmir.

There is need to create awareness on weather forecasting among people about such extreme weather events. Climate change over all is promising a frightening future with no back door to escape or exit for us. It is a high time we pull up our socks and come ahead together to combat the consequences of extreme weather events, not just at the global level but from very basic units such as the Community and the locality.